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Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2013;13(2):237-244.
Published online April 30, 2013.
다기준의사결정기법을 이용한 홍수위험지구 선정
최현일, 박승용, 송재하, 박무종
Identification of Flood Risk Areas using a Multi-criteria Decision Making Method
Hyun Il Choi, Seung Yong Park, Jae Ha Song, Moo Jong Park
Abstract
This study has performed the flood risk assessment using PROMETHEE(Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation), one of the multi-criteria decision making methods, for identifying area zones with regional flooding risk in terms of the integrated flood risk management. The 12 representative factors for flood risk assessment are carefully selected and constructed for the three main aspects, such as PF(Pressure Factors), SF(State Factors), and RF(Response Factors) under the P-S-R( Pressure-State-Response) classification system at a spatial resolution of city/county/town units for the Nakdong River Watershed, The entropy weight coefficient method is also applied to calculate the weight of flood risk factors in order to reduce subjective judgement on the effect of weight coefficients. To examine the practical application of the proposed method for identification of flood risk areas, the results with/without the weight coefficients are compared with flooding zones of natural disaster risk areas officially announced in 2010. It is expected that the flood risk assessment method ensured by full verification can establish a rehabilitation priorities of catchments for regional protection plans against flooding disasters with respect to causes and characteristics of past floods.
Key Words: Flood risk assessment; Flood risk areas; P-S-R; PROMETHEE; Entropy
요지
통합홍수위험관리 측면에서 지역의 홍수위험도에 따라 지구를 구분하기 위하여, 본 논문에서는 다기준의사결정기법 중 하나인 PROMETHEE(Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation)를 적용하여 상대적 홍수위험도를 평가하였다. 낙동강 수계에 대하여 P-S-R(Pressure-State-Response) 구조로 분류되는 3개의 주요 인자인 압력지표(PF), 현상지표(SF), 대책지표(RF)를 대표하는 총 12개 세부평가항목들을 엄선하여, 시 군 구 단위의 공간해상도로 평가지표 자료를 구축하였다. 또한 엔트로피(Entropy) 가중치 산정방법에 의한 가중치를 사용하여 가중치 적용에 따른 주관적인 판정을 최소화하였다. 제안된 홍수위험지구 선정방안의 활용성 검토를 위해 가중치 적용 유 무에 따른 홍수위험지구 선정결과와 2010년에 고시된 자연재해위험지구 중 침수위험지구 현황을 비교검토하였다. 충분히 검증된 홍수위험도 평가방안을 활용하면 과거 홍수의 원인 및 위험성에 대하여 지역적 홍수재해 방재대책 수립을 위한 소유역별 우선순위 선정이 가능할 것이라 기대된다.
핵심용어: 홍수위험도평가; 홍수위험지구; 엔트로피


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