Development and Assessment of Drought Damage Estimation Technique using Drought Characteristic Factors

So, Jae Min; Shon, Kyung Hwan; Bae, Deg Hyo

Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2015;15(2):93-101.
Published online April 30, 2015.

가뭄특성인자를 활용한 가뭄피해추정 기법 개발 및 평가

소재민, 손경환, 배덕효

Development and Assessment of Drought Damage Estimation Technique using Drought Characteristic Factors

Jae Min So, Kyung Hwan Shon, Deg Hyo Bae

Abstract

The objective of this study is to evaluate the applicability of drought damage estimation technique using the drought characteristic fac-tors. In this study, Bivariate Joint Drought Index (BJDI) was used in order to estimate the drought characteristic factors. Actual dam-age costs data was collected through the government report. Damage estimation equation was derived by using the multi regression analysis for drought characteristic factors and damage costs. The comparison of actual damage costs and estimation damage costs residuals showed that the difference were ranged on -51.9~34.6 billion won. The applicability of damage estimation equation is higher under the consideration of data limits. In order to obtain the better reliable regression equation, the continuous collection of drought damage data would be required.

Key Words: Bivariate joint drought index; Drought characteristic factors; Drought damage costs; Multi regression analysis

요지

본 연구에서는 가뭄특성인자를 이용하여 가뭄피해추정 기법을 개발하고 활용성을 평가하였다. 이를 위해 이변량 결합가뭄지수(Bivariate Joint Drought Index, BJDI)를 이용하여 가뭄특성인자를 산정하였다. 또한, 기존 문헌조사를 통해 실제 가뭄피해액 자료를 수집하였으며, 다중회귀분석을 이용하여 가뭄특성인자와 피해액간의 회귀식을 유도하였다. 실제 피해액과 추정된 피해액을 비교한 결과, 잔차는 -519~346억원으로 실측자료의 제한성을 고려할 때 금회 산정한 회귀식의 활용성은 높게 나타났다. 추후, 보다 정확하고 신뢰성 있는 회귀식을 산정하기 위해서 지속적인 가뭄피해자료의 구축이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

핵심용어: 이변량 결합가뭄지수; 가뭄특성인자; 가뭄피해액; 다중회귀분석